Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
